中信證券目標(biāo)價1150元
在貴州茅臺集團直銷方案落地后，中信證券在8月13日的發(fā)布的研報顯示：“預(yù)計公司2019-2020年營收增速分別為15.90%、15.09%，歸屬于母公司的凈利潤增速分別為20.6%、17.4%，對應(yīng)的每股盈余分別為33.80元、39.69元，維持買入評級，目標(biāo)價 1150元。”
研報提到，茅臺未來將重新統(tǒng)籌因違規(guī)被收回的茅臺酒經(jīng)營權(quán)，將其投放到自營、團購等符合本公司營銷戰(zhàn)略布局的渠道和方式，考慮到前期茅臺收回取消經(jīng)銷商配額及批條酒合計約6000噸，則預(yù)計未來公司自營、商超、電商及團購渠道投放量約4300噸左右。
中信證券認(rèn)為，集團營銷公司方案落地，解決了市場對公司治理透明度的擔(dān)憂、同時可能提高市場的中長期提價預(yù)期，公司估值的壓制因素均得到緩解，估值水平有望提升。參考海外烈酒龍頭，預(yù)計茅臺估值有望提升至30倍以上水平。公司自營比例提升將有利于進一步提高茅臺盈利水平。茅臺年初以來供需不平衡導(dǎo)致批價快速上漲，渠道利潤高達140%左右，未來存在再次提價的可能
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